Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 11 (Fantasy Football) (2025)

This week in fantasy football was marked by low-scoring games, largely due to random players like Tylan Wallace, who emerged with a top-12 positional performance, while established stars faltered. Players like Hassan Haskins vultured touchdowns, which seemed to happen frequently across the league. Multiple blowouts further contributed to the lack of fantasy points, leaving managers frustrated as unexpected names popped up on the stat sheets. Meanwhile, the Cowboys and Jets continue to underwhelm, with their offenses failing to provide any consistent fantasy value. It was one of those weeks where fantasy football felt more chaotic than ever, but such is the unpredictable nature of the game. Let’s see what we can gather from such a weird week.

As we look ahead to Week 11, we’ll use key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR to identify players poised for positive or negative regression. By digging into the data, we’ll discover who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!

Overperformer: Davante Adams (New York Jets)

1D/RR: 0.026
Result: 6 receptions, 31 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.1 (half-PPR)

Davante Adams managed to overperform his lowly 0.026 1D/RR rate, but even that feels generous—he could have easily walked away with zero fantasy points if not for a handful of garbage-time looks. His 6.1 points came in the waning moments of the Jets’ brutal 31-6 loss to the Cardinals, and a near-miss on a touchdown only added to the frustration. Despite Adams’ consistently high target share, it’s been a challenging season for managers counting on his production to match his usage. Starting him each week has become a nerve-wracking exercise, knowing that the targets keep coming but rarely yielding the payoff his talent should command.

Underperformer: Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions)

1D/RR: 0.12
Result: 3 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.8 (half-PPR)

Jameson Williams underperformed his 1D/RR of 0.12 in his first game back from suspension. Despite logging 25 routes—a promising sign for his role moving forward—his production didn’t translate into a big fantasy output, ending the day with just 6.8 points. Interestingly, while Williams lands in the “underperforming” section, Davante Adams, who scored only 6.1 points, sits in the “overperforming” category. It’s a reminder of the importance of underlying stats like 1D/RR, which help us forecast future potential rather than just measuring a single game’s surface-level numbers. Williams’ immediate involvement and efficient work when targeted offer plenty of hope that his fantasy relevance will continue this season.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!

Overperformer: Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers)

TPRR: 0.087
Result: 2 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.4 (half-PPR)

Quentin Johnston overperformed his modest 0.087 TPRR, continuing his trend of finding the end zone even with a low target share. He’s become something of a touchdown machine this season, but the Chargers’ offense can be volatile due to their frequent game scripts that limit passing volume. With Justin Herbert’s ability to spread the ball around and exploit mismatches, Johnston’s weekly involvement is often unpredictable. Right now, he’s best viewed as a flex option, but fantasy managers are heavily reliant on him hitting a big play or scoring a touchdown to make his production worthwhile.

Underperformer: CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys)

TPRR: 0.333
Result: 6 receptions, 21 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.1 (half-PPR)

CeeDee Lamb underperformed his strong 0.333 TPRR, a troubling trend that’s become all too familiar this season. With Dak Prescott now out for the year, fantasy managers might brace themselves for similar frustrations ahead with Cooper Rush stepping in as QB1. Lamb’s stat line from Sunday—six receptions for a paltry 21 yards—paints a bleak picture, highlighting just how inefficient the offense has been at times. To make matters worse, Lamb had a potential touchdown opportunity wiped out by a glaring sunbeam slicing through the Cowboys stadium, a now-infamous design choice by Jerry Jones. Ironically, they use a shade to block the sun for press conferences but leave players squinting on the field. This frustrating mix of circumstances has turned CeeDee into more of a volatile fantasy asset than his talent suggests, and with Rush under center, a resurgence seems distant.

The Dallas Cowboys set up a shade for coaches at today's news conference… pic.twitter.com/AJ5vZRafFY

— FOX 4 NEWS (@FOX4) November 11, 2024

See Also

Fantasy football rookie watch: Brock Bowers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Drake Maye shine

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)

YPRR: 0.571
Result: 3 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.1 (half-PPR)

Tyreek Hill actually overperformed his low YPRR of 0.571, thanks in large part to a one-yard touchdown that salvaged an otherwise lackluster night. Miami’s offense has been sputtering lately, and Monday Night Football against the Rams was no different, with the Dolphins barely escaping as the Rams went 0-for-3 in the red zone. Hill, who was once a fantasy powerhouse, has become a more nerve-wracking start each week, as the explosive plays that made him a star have dwindled.

Even with Tua Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins’ offense hasn’t found its rhythm, and Hill’s value has dipped, as managers now have to rely on low-volume scoring plays to get anything significant out of him. He remains in starting lineups because of his potential for a big game, but the thrill has faded into an uneasy hope, with managers anxiously waiting for that 40-point performance that now feels increasingly elusive.

Underperformer: Demario Douglas (New England Patriots)

YPRR: 2.778
Result: 4 receptions, 50 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.0 (half-PPR)

Demario Douglas underperformed his impressive YPRR of 2.778 in a low-volume passing game where the Patriots cruised past the Bears 19-3. In a game that saw Caleb Williams under constant pressure, spending half the game on his back due to sacks, New England didn’t have to press the passing game. Douglas only saw five targets, which is surprising given his efficiency, but the Patriots were content to play a conservative, field-position game once they realized they could control Chicago on the defensive end.

While Douglas has shown plenty of potential, this type of game script limited his fantasy value for the week. He’s been a bright spot, but these matchups when New England leans on defense can mean less opportunity for him. As long as the Patriots have the luxury of coasting with their defense, Douglas may continue to see fluctuations in his targets and production. He is a good flex play right now in a game where you think the opposition can score points, but if you are not sure, I would stay away.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

As we wrap up this week, let’s give a nod to Calvin Ridley, who’s been solid lately and looks every bit like the breakout Andy anticipated in his second-half callout. Impressively, six of the top 12 WRs in fantasy this week were started in less than 50% of leagues on Sleeper—a real testament to the unpredictability of weekly performances and the importance of monitoring emerging trends and matchups.

Demario Douglas, despite underperforming his YPRR against the Bears, remains a player to watch given his high-efficiency metrics, even though a low-volume, defensively-driven game script limited his output. As for other standout players, Nico Collins, unfortunately, did not make his return this week, a disappointing blow to those looking forward to his impact.

With 10 weeks in the books, PRS now considers only WRs who have played in at least six games. This threshold will increase to seven games by Week 12, giving an even clearer picture of top-performing WRs. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase continues to be a juggernaut, already racking up 10 touchdowns—a level of production that’s putting fantasy teams in strong positions week after week. Wishing everyone luck as we charge into Week 10—may your rosters stay healthy and your matchups go your way!